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NEW YORK DAWN™ > Blog > Entertainment > 2026 Oscar predictions: finest actor
2026 Oscar predictions: finest actor
Entertainment

2026 Oscar predictions: finest actor

Last updated: September 23, 2025 2:34 pm
Editorial Board Published September 23, 2025
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After what felt like a couple of down years, Dave Karger calls this “Perhaps the most crowded acting category” of the season, loaded with large names and rising stars. He notes Timothée Chalamet “could score his third nomination in this category by the age of 30.”

“George Clooney playing a movie star taking stock of his life may not sound like a stretch,” writes Glenn Whipp, “but making something look so smooth takes work.”

Robert Daniels says, “I remain astounded by Dwayne Johnson’s physically taxing and psychologically intense portrayal of MMA star Mark Kerr. I don’t know how he got that look of vacant desperation in his eyes, but it’s chilling.”

Among the many others getting restricted (however passionate) assist: Ethan Hawke — Daniels says his “performance in ‘Blue Moon’ will resonate” — and Michael B. Jordan — whom Anne Thompson calls one of many “two standouts [who] dominate the field” together with Leonardo DiCaprio.

Greatest actress | Greatest supporting actress | Greatest supporting actor

T1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”T1. Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”3. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”4. George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”T5. Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”T5. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”T5. Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”8. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”2. Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”3. Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”4. Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”5. Idris Elba, “A House of Dynamite”

“Leonardo DiCaprio is difficult to bet against, and I have a feeling Ethan Hawke’s performance in ‘Blue Moon’ will resonate. But I remain astounded by Dwayne Johnson’s physically taxing and psychologically intense portrayal of MMA star Mark Kerr. I don’t know how he got that look of vacant desperation in his eyes, but it’s chilling.”

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Turner Traditional Motion pictures

Dave Karger

1. George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”2. Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”3. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”4. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”5. Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”

“Perhaps the most crowded acting category this year, lead actor features a mix of past acting winners (George Clooney, Leonardo DiCaprio) and performers looking to score their first nominations (Wagner Moura, Jeremy Allen White, Dwayne Johnson). Timothée Chalamet, meanwhile, could score his third nomination in this category by the age of 30.”

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Los Angeles Instances

Amy Nicholson

1. Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”2. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”3. Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg”4. Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”5. Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman”

“Fifteen years ago, Jeff Bridges won an Oscar for ‘Crazy Heart,’ a salt-of-the-earth musical drama by writer-director Scott Cooper. Now, Jeremy Allen White steps up to the same mic. Cooper’s biopic of Bruce Springsteen during the making of 1982’s ‘Nebraska’ is the right anthem at the right time.”

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IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”2. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”3. Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”4. Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”5. George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”

“Two standouts dominate a crowded field. Michael B. Jordan plays charismatic twins in ‘Sinners,’ and Leonardo DiCaprio chases after his kidnapped daughter in ‘One Battle after Another.’ ”

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Katie Walsh

1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”2. Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine”3. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”4. Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”5. George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”

“Dwayne Johnson will receive a nomination for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ a film that feels reverse-engineered to get him one. Other than that, I’m hearing that Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme’ is a lock, and Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance in ‘One Battle After Another’ is a harrowing hoot. Let’s get Cannes winner Wagner Moura of ‘The Secret Agent’ in there too.”

line drawing of a man on a white circle

Los Angeles Instances

Glenn Whipp

1. Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”2. Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere”3. Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”4. Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”5. George Clooney, “Jay Kelly”

“George Clooney playing a movie star taking stock of his life may not sound like a stretch, so watching him move through Noah Baumbach’s ‘Jay Kelly’ with seemingly effortless ease isn’t surprising. But making something look so smooth takes work. Gold star?”

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