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NEW YORK DAWN™ > Blog > Entertainment > 2026 Oscar predictions: finest actress
2026 Oscar predictions: finest actress
Entertainment

2026 Oscar predictions: finest actress

Last updated: September 22, 2025 11:12 am
Editorial Board Published September 22, 2025
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With a lot uncertainty within the earliest spherical, consensus No. 1 picks are uncommon, however that’s simply what Jessie Buckley of “Hamnet” is — one in all solely two in your entire BuzzMeter ballot. She has double the factors of runner-up Renate Reinsve, who is only one tally forward of Emma Stone.

Saying it feels “inevitable” that Buckley will at some point win, Robert Daniels calls her work in “Hamnet” “a gut-wrenching performance … Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream.”

Among the many different contenders, Glenn Whipp asks of the upcoming “Wicked: For Good,” “Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Cynthia Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.” Dave Karger wonders if one star has the make-up to land within the high 5: “‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

In the meantime, Katie Walsh highlights one of many perils of long-range predictions — occasional class uncertainty: “Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?” Blunt’s roller-coaster efficiency as a champion wrestler’s love — and maybe his most harmful opponent — is tough to pin down.

As for Seyfried, at press time “The Testament of Ann Lee” doesn’t but have a distributor. However maybe the lead’s robust displaying on the BuzzMeter will likely be an inducement to vary that.

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”4. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”6. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”7. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”8. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”

RogerEbert.com

Robert Daniels

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”4. Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt”5. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”

“With a gut-wrenching performance as Agnes Shakespeare, Jessie Buckley’s fearless turn echoes with the force of a primal scream. It feels inevitable that the previous nominee will win an Oscar at some point. It’s just a matter of time.”

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Turner Basic Films

Dave Karger

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”3. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”4. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”5. Sydney Sweeney, “Christy”

“International actresses headline this race, with ‘Hamnet’s’ Jessie Buckley and ‘Sentimental Value’s’ Renate Reinsve earning festival raves for their wonderful performances. Two-time winner Emma Stone and two-time acting nominee Cynthia Erivo are also likely to return, while ‘Christy’ star Sydney Sweeney will try to ride her strong Toronto buzz to a first nomination.”

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Los Angeles Occasions

Amy Nicholson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”3. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”4. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“A Jessie Buckley win here as Shakespeare’s wild, witchy wife makes perfect sense. The Irish talent comes to the campaign with a supporting nom for ‘The Lost Daughter’ already under her sash and heaps of critical goodwill dating to 2018’s ‘Wild Rose.’ But I wouldn’t mind a Tessa Thompson upset.”

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IndieWire

Anne Thompson

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”3. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”5. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”

“The win could go to Jessie Buckley for her heart-wrenching mother in ‘Hamnet.’ Her challengers are another troubled mother, Rose Byrne in ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,’ warbler Cynthia Erivo in ‘Wicked for Good,’ ‘Bugonia’ star Emma Stone, who has already won twice, and Renate Reinsve as a great actress in Norwegian Oscar submission ‘Sentimental Value.’ ”

line drawing of a person with long hair on a white circle

Katie Walsh

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Die, My Love”4. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”5. Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”

“I haven’t seen ‘Hamnet,’ but I’m hearing best actress is Jessie Buckley’s to lose. The TIFF People’s Choice Award gives it a boost too. Should Emily Blunt go lead for ‘The Smashing Machine,’ or supporting?”

line drawing of a man on a white circle

Los Angeles Occasions

Glenn Whipp

1. Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”2. Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”3. Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”4. Emma Stone, “Bugonia”5. Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”

“Get ready for the sequel Oscar campaign for Cynthia Erivo and ‘Wicked’ as the second installment of the musical adaptation lands in November. Will voters be into it or over it? That’s a coin flip. More certain: Erivo will rip out our hearts in the sequel.”

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