AFC TITLE GAME: PATRIOTS at BRONCOS
3 p.m., Patriots by 5, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Broncos would have been favored by 1 ½ with Bo Nix so it’s a 6 ½-point shift with Jarrett Stidham. Nix performed one in every of his finest video games earlier than being injured towards the Payments, however many occasions this season he was no higher than mediocre and the protection nonetheless carried Denver to a win. Our query, then, is, can Stidham play to the extent of Nix’s worst video games? Sean Payton has had success making ready backup QBs (Teddy Bridgewater) whereas in New Orleans and he’s definitely a ok recreation planner to make the right allowances — and with Stidham not having performed in three years (earlier than Drake Maye got here into the league), what can Mike Vrabel anticipate in his preparation? The wild card is whether or not and the way J.Ok. Dobbins performs. Since Week 11, after the Dobbins damage, the Broncos working recreation went downhill. With out him, the onus would fall squarely on Stidham, however Dobbins has been working towards and will go well with up.
On the opposite facet, we’ve at all times seemed on the Broncos’ protection as not being nearly as good as its stats, i.e., excellent however not dominant, particularly towards high quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence and Josh Allen. Now, they’ll be dealing with an MVP candidate in Maye. But Maye’s playoff performances have been nowhere close to his common season, notably within the space of ball safety. Nobody had extra sacks than the Broncos this season so Maye has to handle the ball higher. Then again, with the Broncos enjoying a lot man protection, there’s extra alternative for the athletic Maye to take off and make one thing occur together with his succesful legs. Take into account, too, that, whereas Stefon Diggs excels towards man, he’ll be up towards All Professional Patrick Surtain II. Then contemplate that Maye has been spreading the ball out to a deep receiving corps. The Patriots ought to win though the worth is clearly with Denver. That’s a conundrum. And with a lot hypothesis at play, the wiser wager will be the beneath. We all know the Broncos aren’t going to open issues up with Stidham and we all know that these are two of the top-rated defensive items within the NFL.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the beneath.
NFC TITLE GAME: RAMS at SEAHAWKS
6:30 p.m., Seahawks by 2 ½, 48
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s arguably the league’s finest quarterback towards the league’s finest protection. On high of that you’ve one of many league’s finest offensive minds in Sean McVay towards a defensive genius in Mike Macdonald. There’s a great deal of recency bias at play the best way the Seahawks have been rolling and the best way the Rams have been squeaking by, notably on protection. However quite a lot of that’s warranted. The Seahawks stand out because the best-balanced group left and their protection has been insane. Exterior of the final recreation towards the Rams, a little bit of an anomaly as a result of it was a Thursday nighter, they’ve allowed two TDs since Week 13. The Seahawks have the perfect entrance 4 within the league. Combine within the blitz, which the Bears used to nice impact final week, and Stafford can be beneath quite a lot of warmth as he tries to work the intermediate areas between the linebackers and two-high safeties. Nobody sees the sphere higher, however Stafford appears to be at lower than 100%.
For sure, the Rams have been Sam Darnold’s kryptonite, primarily as a result of they will get fast strain with out blitzing. If this finally ends up completely on his shoulders, the Rams win. He folded towards them in final yr’s playoffs and threw six interceptions towards them within the two video games this yr, drastically contributing to all these Rams factors by means of gifted discipline place. The L.A. protection, nevertheless, hasn’t been dominating the purpose of assault. Zach Charbonnet is completed however Seattle ought to have the ability depend on the opposite facet of its two-headed in Kenneth Walker III and management the clock from its two-tight finish formations. After which there’s this: for the reason that 1970 merger, house groups are 15-5 straight up in convention championship video games between division rivals. The notion is that this can be a high-scoring recreation, simply because the Thursday night time recreation was. Nonetheless, in case you’re the Seahawks, you don’t need Darold attempting to match factors with Stafford. You’re going to need to management the sport on the bottom and along with your protection.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Seahawks and the beneath.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Seahawks
LAST WEEK: 2-2, 1-3 over/beneath
OVERALL PLAYOFFS: 3-7, 6-4 over/beneath
BEST BETS: 1-1
