Projected annual prices of all-cause and psychiatric care from 2023 to 2032. All prices are undiscounted and valued in 2023 U.S. {Dollars} (USD). The closed cohort setting exhibits the projected annual prices of care among the many incident sufferers identified in 2023, with the tenth cycle equal to the yr 2032. The open cohort setting exhibits the projected annual prices of care among the many sufferers identified within the latest 10 years counting from the corresponding calendar yr. Credit score: The Lancet Regional Well being – Western Pacific (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101026
The primary melancholy well being financial modeling research, led by Professor Shirley Li Xue, from the LKS School of Medication, the College of Hong Kong (HKUMed), revealed that Hong Kong will face a big and ongoing burden of melancholy from 2023 to 2032. Whereas fewer than 20% of the circumstances are anticipated to develop treatment-resistant melancholy (TRD) or associated comorbidities, this group is predicted to account for near half of depression-related medical prices within the metropolis.
Revealed in The Lancet Regional Well being–Western Pacific, the analysis highlights, beneath the circumstance of worldwide socioeconomic change, alarming tendencies in psychological well being and requires multi-disciplinary well being and social assist in Hong Kong.
Within the post-pandemic period, psychological well being points have emerged as a world concern, and Hong Kong is not any exception. In response, researchers from HKUMed developed a well being financial mannequin to forecast the prices of care and mortality associated to melancholy from 2023 to 2032 to facilitate long-term useful resource planning and improve readiness for rising psychological well being therapy wants.
The analysis staff utilized territory-wide digital medical information from the Hospital Authority to review a reference cohort of 25,190 sufferers identified with melancholy between 2014 and 2016 and adopted up for as much as seven years till the tip of 2020. This complete real-world large information served as enter parameters for a Markov-chain-based illness burden forecasting mannequin, mapping affected person journeys from the onset of melancholy to the event of therapy resistance, comorbidities and deaths.
In a “status quo” state of affairs, through which no new methods or progressive therapies for melancholy are launched, the mannequin projected the next:
Persistent burden of melancholy: Between 55,849 and 57,896 people are anticipated to dwell with melancholy yearly by means of 2032, incurring over HK$2.51 billion in all-cause well being care prices and HK$473.5 million particularly for psychiatric care. These prices are anticipated to stay secure over the following 10 years with out new interventions (inflation not thought-about).
Disproportionate burden in susceptible teams: Although males are much less more likely to expertise melancholy, they make the most of extra sources as soon as identified. Males aged 65 and above with previous well being points face the best particular person well being care prices and mortality threat, and adolescent sufferers incur the best psychiatric care bills.
Early intervention as a key driver of price financial savings: Sufferers who’ve therapy failure of at the very least two trials of antidepressants are outlined to have TRD. Fewer than 20% of sufferers experiencing melancholy are more likely to develop TRD or related comorbidities, however they symbolize 31% to 54% of whole depression-related well being care prices. It’s subsequently important to offer well timed affected person assist, given the immense burden related to extra extreme levels, that are the best drivers of prices and life-year loss.
“This study provides vital insights and reference estimates for medium-long-term mental health resource planning in the city,” stated Professor Shirley Li Xue, Assistant Professor in each the Division of Medication beneath the Faculty of Medical Medication and the Division of Pharmacology and Pharmacy of HKUMed.
“Policymakers should anticipate a persistent burden of depression and undertake budget planning for vulnerable groups, including adolescents and people living with medical conditions,” stated Professor Li.
“Setting up early interventions targeting TRD is imperative for reducing health care costs. Our model can simulate various scenarios and predict changes in the cost burden if innovative medicines and new services are introduced.”
The analysis staff is presently exploring a number of therapeutic areas, leveraging real-world information and simulation modeling to undertaking the persistent illness burden and improve early well being system preparedness for long-term care wants within the metropolis.
“The findings highlight the urgent need for proactive mental health strategies, as Hong Kong faces a decade of heightened depression-related challenges,” Professor Li added.
Extra info:
Vivien Kin Yi Chan et al, Projecting the 10-year prices of care and mortality burden of melancholy till 2032: a Markov modelling research developed from real-world information, The Lancet Regional Well being—Western Pacific (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101026
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