The Oscar race for finest image has been a curler coaster experience all season and, even with “Anora” profitable the highest prize from each the producers and administrators guilds, there nonetheless is perhaps a second of suspense when that remaining envelope is opened on the March 2 ceremony. It has been that sort of yr.
However finest image isn’t the one class that feels a bit up for grabs. After a 2024 present during which many of the winners appeared like foregone conclusions — “Oppenheimer” and its males, Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr., and Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph for “The Holdovers” — we now have a variety of races that really feel like they might go a technique or one other.
So let’s put apart the most effective image drama for now and give attention to the place we’re in 5 different classes that might find yourself shocking us at this yr’s Academy Awards.
Lead actor: Timothée Chalamet or Adrien Brody?
Is Timothée Chalamet too younger to win this trip?
(Macall Polay/Searchlight Footage)
Adrien Brody already has one Oscar. May that cease him from incomes a second?
(A24)
Chalamet gained’t flip 30 till the top of the yr. If he gained for “A Complete Unknown,” he’d be the youngest to take the lead actor trophy. Who at the moment holds that distinction? None aside from Brody, who gained for “The Pianist” in 2003, 22 days earlier than his thirtieth birthday.
“The Brutalist” earned 10 nominations, whereas “A Complete Unknown” scored eight. Reputation is just not an issue for both of those films. Chalamet has the biopic bias on his aspect (no, Brody’s László Tóth is just not an actual architect, although I hear he crossed paths with Lydia Tár in a previous life), did all his personal singing and expressed an earnest appreciation for the work of Bob Dylan, and the legend has returned the favor. And, as talked about, Brody already has his Oscar. And never everybody was pleased with the way in which he accepted it. (To cite Halle Berry: “I was like, ‘What the f— is happening?’”)
However … Chalamet nonetheless feels just a little like Leonardo DiCaprio within the 2000s, when he was king of the world, pulling in nominations for such movies as “The Aviator,” “Blood Diamond” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” however developing brief earlier than lastly profitable for “The Revenant.” The academy tends to make actors pay their dues, and we nonetheless is perhaps a bit early in that section of Chalamet’s profession.
Lead actress: Demi Moore or Fernanda Torres?
Demi Moore might take the Oscar for a movie many thought was too graphic.
(Christine Tamalet/Working Title Movies)
Fernanda Torres is a longshot, however might win the Oscar.
(Adrian Teijido/Sony Footage Classics)
Again after we have been speaking concerning the ridiculous variety of ladies deserving a lead actress nomination this yr, many individuals figured it’d be robust for both Moore or Torres to make the ultimate 5. And now right here we’re, with Torres nominated and Moore favored to win for her uncooked, susceptible flip in “The Substance” and as a method of honoring her profession, perseverance and endurance.
Moore’s narrative got here into focus the evening she gained the Golden Globe when she acknowledged the second and gave a speech — one which she had memorized — that was each gracious and galvanizing. She wrapped it up, beaming, “I do belong.”
“Good luck to the next person,” presenter Kerry Washington mentioned instantly afterward.
All of a sudden, all of the doubts about “The Substance” being too outré for Oscar voters went up in smoke. And in the event you wanted additional proof, the academy gave Coralie Fargeat’s body-horror movie a complete of 5 nominations, together with finest image, director, unique screenplay and make-up and hairstyling.
However “The Substance” wasn’t the one film that carried out past expectations on nominations morning. “I’m Still Here,” starring Torres as a defiant lady holding her household collectively after a repressive regime takes her husband away, earned nominations for its lead in addition to finest image and worldwide characteristic. And since then, viewership for the late-arriving movie has soared, persevering with the momentum that started when Torres gained on the Golden Globes. (Moore gained for comedy; Torres, drama.)
Torres additionally has passionate help from the academy’s worldwide voters, a bloc that has grow to be more and more necessary the previous few years, together with a frenzied on-line backing from followers in her residence nation, Brazil. Torres did miss a couple of key precursors, together with BAFTA and SAG. Plus, solely two ladies have gained this Oscar for a non-English-language flip — Sophia Loren (“Two Women”) and Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”). So whereas Torres has an opportunity, she stays a protracted shot. And who is aware of? If “Anora” sweeps, Mikey Madison might be a part of the enjoyable.
Authentic screenplay: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “The Substance” or “A Real Pain”?
“Anora,” starring Mikey Madison and Mark Eydelshteyn, isn’t the one deserving unorthodox indie film script.
(NEON)
Sean Baker earned Oscar nominations for writing, directing, producing and enhancing “Anora.” After profitable the DGA, he’s now the clear choose for director. And with the PGA win, “Anora” is the favourite for finest image. May he win a 3rd Oscar for the screenplay? Or a fourth for movie enhancing and, within the course of, tie Walt Disney’s report for many Oscars gained in a single yr? On this topsy-turvy awards season, nothing feels not possible.
Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain,” with its deft steadiness of humor and melodrama, was an early favourite to win right here, however lacking a finest image nomination has made that proposition iffy. Nonetheless, it’s a dialogue-heavy movie with a lot of terrific verbal sparring between Eisenberg and co-star Kieran Culkin, so I wouldn’t dismiss its probabilities totally.
And if voters are doubling down on originality, each the bonkers horror of “The Substance” and the epic ambitions of “The Brutalist” provide choices. Not higher than “Anora,” however the vote for unorthodox indie films figures to be splintered.
Animated characteristic: “The Wild Robot” or “Flow”?
“The Wild Robot” scored massive on the Annie Awards for animation.
(DreamWorks)
Will the academy’s worldwide voters give Latvia’s “Flow” a lift?
(Pageant de Cannes)
“The Wild Robot” earned rapturous opinions when it premiered on the Toronto Movie Pageant final yr and did properly sufficient on the field workplace, incomes greater than $300 million worldwide. Along with animated characteristic, it additionally picked up nominations for sound and unique rating. And it simply dominated the Annie Awards, profitable 9 prizes, together with finest characteristic.
However “Flow,” co-written and directed by Latvian filmmaker Gints Zilbalodis, can’t be utterly dismissed. It scored a number of nods too, touchdown in worldwide characteristic in addition to animated. So, once more, we’re circling again to the academy’s worldwide membership, a bunch more likely to get behind Zilbalodis’ transferring, wordless movie. Possibly academy’s cat-loving demographic can engineer an upset?
Worldwide characteristic: “Emilia Pérez” or “I’m Still Here”?
Will backlash to “Emilia Pérez,” starring Zoe Saldaña, tank the movie’s probabilities?
( WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS, PATHÉ FILMS, FRANCE 2 CINÉMA)
“I’m Still Here” tackles present political points in its indictment of authoritarianism.
(Alile Onawale/Sony Footage Classics)
Within the wake of the newest drama surrounding “Emilia Pérez” lead Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media posts and rogue media appearances, some have puzzled if Oscar voters will shun the movie, leading to zero wins from its main 13 nominations. That appears just a little excessive. It’s possible “Emilia Pérez” will nonetheless win the classes it was more likely to take earlier than the backlash, together with worldwide characteristic. But when voters are on the lookout for another, they’ve one in “I’m Still Here,” which, like “Emilia Pérez,” was nominated for finest image. And, as a bonus for academy members who prefer to make an announcement with their ballots, “I’m Still Here” can also be a potent indictment of authoritarianism, one thing that’s on many individuals’s minds lately.
