Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire | (TNS) CQ-Roll Name
WASHINGTON — A brand new president with an bold agenda. Stark ideological divisions inside each events. And a deeply divided Home with Republicans holding a slender majority.
These are a few of the dynamics that might be in play in the course of the 119th Congress. However Democrats and Republicans are already wanting on the 2026 midterm elections.
“[We’re] going to be on offense to hold our House GOP majority in 2026,” North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who leads the Nationwide Republican Congressional Committee, stated on social media final month. “Let’s get to work!’’
Democrats, meanwhile, are already looking for every opportunity to loosen the GOP’s narrow majority, including the recent Republican infighting over the government funding extension. But their earliest chances to do so — special elections to succeed Republican House members, including two poised to join the Trump administration — will be tough lifts. Those are set to take place in deep-red territory.
“House Republicans have reminded everyone AGAIN that they only care about doing what Donald Trump & Elon Musk tell them to,” Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee, stated on social media earlier than the shut of the earlier Congress. “And the first chance voters will get to weigh in will be the midterms, and these irresponsible decisions will cost House Republicans the majority.”
CQ Roll Name is taking an preliminary have a look at Home members who may very well be weak in 2026, grouped by classes. However with the midterm elections virtually two years away, loads will be anticipated to alter between now and Nov. 3, 2026.
New York and California
Two blue states, New York and California, have been key Home battlegrounds in current election cycles, and 2026 must be no totally different, with each events defending aggressive seats in each states.
Eight districts in California had been determined by 5 factors or much less in 2024. They embrace the Central Valley seat of Democrat Adam Grey, who defeated Republican Rep. John Duarte by fewer than 200 votes. Two Southern California Democrats — George Whitesides, who knocked off GOP Rep. Mike Garcia, and Derek Tran, who unseated Republican Rep. Michelle Metal by simply over 650 votes — probably begin off among the many most weak members.
A handful of districts in New York will probably be aggressive once more too. Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, who defeated GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito on Lengthy Island, will combat for a second time period in an space the place native Republicans have seen a resurgence lately, whereas fellow Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi may additionally face one other shut race. Districts north of New York Metropolis, just like the seventeenth, the place Republican Mike Lawler gained a second time period, and the nineteenth, the place Democrat Josh Riley ousted GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro, will probably be on celebration goal lists. Lawler is taken into account a possible gubernatorial candidate in 2026, and an open seat could be simpler for Democrats to flip.
One coverage debate may form the destiny of Republicans in high-tax states, together with New York and California: whether or not a 2017 tax legislation provision that positioned a $10,000 cap on state and native tax deductions is renewed, and if that’s the case, in what manner. Republican lawmakers in each states are amongst these main the push to eradicate or elevate the cap.
Blue Canine and rural Democrats
Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez of Washington state have proved they will achieve Republican-leaning territory, though each can count on to as soon as once more be GOP targets this cycle. Golden gained a fourth time period in November by lower than some extent as Trump carried his seat by 10 factors.
Two different members of the average Blue Canine Coalition, Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, scraped by in South Texas border districts which can be predominantly Latino, a demographic that has grown extra Trump-friendly lately.
And the president-elect’s strong enchantment amongst rural voters may take a look at Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who gained a second time period to his jap North Carolina seat by lower than 2 factors.
Shut margins
Past California, New York and Blue Canine territory, members who eked out victories in shut races are more likely to wind up as high targets in 2026.
They embrace Republicans comparable to Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who gained a 3rd time period by lower than a proportion level, or about 788 votes. That’s nonetheless a extra comfy margin than her six-vote edge in 2020. Colorado freshman Gabe Evans had the second-narrowest victory amongst Home Republicans, flipping a seat north of Denver by just below 2,500 votes. And Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, a perennial Democratic goal, narrowly gained a fifth time period as Kamala Harris was carrying his Omaha-area district.
Republican Nick Begich III entered Congress after defeating Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola by 2 factors for Alaska’s at-large seat. Whereas the state usually votes pink, its ranked selection voting system may preserve the door open for a future aggressive race.
Ideological warriors
Republicans who’re philosophically against elevating the debt restrict have already tangled with Trump over a stopgap spending measure that included language to droop the borrowing cap for 2 years. One distinguished conservative critic of the invoice, Texas Rep. Chip Roy, was singled out by Trump, who expressed hope that challengers will “go after Chip” in a major. Roy wasn’t the one GOP member to reject the measure: In all, 38 Republicans voted towards it.
Mike Johnson’s election as speaker final week additionally showcased GOP divides. In the end, just one Republican, Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, voted towards Johnson after two different holdouts, Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Keith Self of Texas, switched their votes. Trump was firmly behind Johnson, who was elected on the primary poll. Former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s onetime appearing chief of workers whom Norman succeeded within the Home, provided to assist goal the congressman final week.
Trump has usually used his sway with GOP voters to focus on Republicans he views as disloyal. Freshman Rep. John McGuire had Trump’s backing when he narrowly defeated Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good in a aggressive major in Virginia final 12 months.
Democrats have their very own ideological rifts. The celebration noticed a lot of divisive primaries in 2024, a number of of them concentrating on progressives and fueled by pro-Israel tremendous PACs. This time round, philosophical splits inside the celebration may depart Democrats throughout the political spectrum weak. Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, whose postelection feedback suggesting the celebration’s help for transgender athletes is a part of the explanation why Democrats misplaced, has already drawn guarantees to search out major opponents. The Boston Globe reported final month that Dan Koh, a former Andover, Mass., selectman and aide to former Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, is contemplating a run.
New battlegrounds?
Each events will look to increase their offensive alternatives in 2026. In a memo launched final month, Home Majority PAC, a brilliant PAC centered on electing Democrats to the Home, contains a number of new GOP targets, together with Eli Crane of Arizona, Kevin Kiley of California, Invoice Huizenga of Michigan and Rob Wittman of Virginia.
In the meantime, Republican hopes have been bolstered by Trump’s stronger-than-expected efficiency in historically blue territory, such because the suburban New Jersey district gained by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou. The president-elect’s positive factors in pink states like Florida may increase the battleground Home map additional nonetheless.
Redistricting redux
A number of states may have new congressional maps for the 2026 midterms. Anticipated new traces in Ohio may endanger Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving girl within the Home, and Emilia Sykes.
Pending court docket circumstances in a number of states may additionally result in redrawn maps, together with in Alabama and Louisiana, the place Democrats Shomari Figures and Cleo Fields, respectively, picked up seats final fall that had been drawn to incorporate substantial Black populations.
Impeachment Republicans
Simply two Home Republicans who voted to question Trump for “incitement of an insurrection” after the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol stay in Congress. However Reps. Dan Newhouse of Washington and David Valadao of California gained reelection in 2024, though Newhouse needed to dispatch Trump-backed challengers from the best within the major and within the basic election.
Eyes elsewhere?
Most gubernatorial contests are nonetheless taking form, however a lot of Home members have despatched indicators that they’re a minimum of pondering operating for his or her state’s highest workplace, together with in New York (Lawler and Democrat Ritchie Torres), Tennessee (Republicans Tim Burchett and Andy Ogles), South Dakota (Republican Dusty Johnson), Colorado (Democrat Jason Crow), Pennsylvania (Republican Dan Meuser), Florida (Republican Byron Donalds) and South Carolina (Republicans Norman and Nancy Mace). Most of those seats can be anticipated to stay in celebration arms ought to the incumbents bolt for gubernatorial runs.
However first, there are the 2025 state elections in New Jersey and Virginia, the place former or present Home members are searching for the governor’s mansion. Virginia Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who opted towards reelection final 12 months to concentrate on her gubernatorial bid, may face a major problem from Rep. Robert C. “Bobby” Scott, who’s maintaining the door open on a run. And in New Jersey, two incumbent Democrats, Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, are a part of a crowded area vying for the Backyard State’s governorship.
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