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Early within the COVID-19 pandemic, the failure of UK authorities advisers to comply with World Well being Group (WHO) recommendation and rising proof from East Asia that suppression might carry the virus underneath management shortly led to avoidable UK deaths, argues an professional in The BMJ.
Suppression goals to keep away from nationwide lockdowns and preserve financial exercise for a lot of the inhabitants by introducing surveillance techniques to carry new outbreaks underneath management shortly, thus lowering the reproductive charge of an infection (R0) to under 1 and inflicting the epidemic to wither.
Anthony Costello, professor of world well being at College School London says, had the UK adopted a suppression technique, it may need prevented hundreds of deaths. He asks why long-term methods of suppression proceed to be under-recognized and requires higher governance of UK pandemic science recommendation.
In January 2020, the worldwide menace from COVID-19 was clear and the WHO was advising international locations to give attention to fast suppression to keep away from an instantaneous menace from the unfold of the brand new coronavirus, he explains.
But whereas Greece, Germany, Norway, and Eire took steps to comply with these suggestions, the UK authorities’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) unanimously selected a response based mostly on pandemic flu that ignored the completely different traits of coronavirus transmission.
Nor did SAGE change its recommendation after studies of quickly falling circumstances and an infection charges in a number of East Asian international locations that had targeted on suppression. As an alternative, in March 2020, the federal government revealed its “contain, delay, research, mitigate” plan based mostly on influenza that may enable the virus to unfold to attain “herd immunity.”
SAGE’s unwavering determination to suggest a response based mostly on influenza has continued to be defended by its co-chairs, Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, and Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser till 2023, notes Costello.
But their protection is predicated on three arguably mistaken assumptions: that COVID couldn’t have been suppressed, that a large second wave might comply with even when it was, and that suppression required extended nationwide lockdowns.
He acknowledges that SAGE confronted a tough and fast-changing state of affairs in early 2020 however says its recommendation to authorities was “flawed” and “arose from systems failure.”
As an example, SAGE didn’t suggest fast growth of testing, type plans to mobilize group well being staff as contact tracers at scale to hotspot areas and throughout district well being safety groups, or advise on key monetary and assist measures for efficient self-isolation, he writes.
“Had the UK followed the same strategy and achieved the same excess cumulative death rate by March 2024 as South Korea, 69 instead of 344 deaths per 100,000, it might have prevented up to 180,000 UK deaths.”
The BMJ requested Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance why they’d not really useful a suppression response, given WHO recommendation and rising proof early within the pandemic; about SAGE’s lack of impartial specialists; why they weren’t extra outspoken about health-harming insurance policies; and whether or not they stand by the suggestions they made to not give attention to suppression, however had not obtained a response by the point of publication.
Costello factors out that, 5 years on, most of the individuals who developed the UK’s flawed response are nonetheless in publish; they haven’t modified their views on suppression, and little has been accomplished to enhance authorities pandemic recommendation committees or to introduce detailed governance guidelines for the UK’s future pandemic response and resilience.
“The COVID inquiry and the UK medical establishment should properly critique this public health failure,” he concludes.
Extra info:
Evaluation: UK determination to not suppress covid raises questions on medical and scientific recommendation, The BMJ (2025). DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2025-082463
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British Medical Journal
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Failure to give attention to COVID suppression led to avoidable UK deaths, says professional (2025, Could 11)
retrieved 11 Could 2025
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