They are saying lightning by no means strikes the identical place twice. However the NBA’s new collective bargaining settlement is electrifying payrolls throughout the league — and the Knicks could also be staring down a well-recognized storm.
As a result of identical to Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson wants a increase and a contract extension, and the Knicks, boxed in by the league’s punitive second apron, don’t at present have the flexibleness to present him one forward of the Feb. 5 NBA Commerce Deadline whereas conserving their flexibility to remain beneath the brink for subsequent season.
It’s the precise situation the Knicks have labored to keep away from in recent times.
They didn’t lengthen Immanuel Quickley earlier than together with him alongside RJ Barrett within the OG Anunoby commerce with the Toronto Raptors. They usually picked up Quentin Grimes’ rookie possibility however declined to lock him right into a long-term deal, ultimately transferring him to Detroit for Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks.
In every case, the entrance workplace opted to punt on a younger participant and as a substitute hold their books open for enterprise. This time might be totally different. Robinson reaffirmed his significance to the Knicks’ title hopes with 10 offensive rebounds in 18 minutes within the NBA Cup Ultimate victory over the San Antonio Spurs. He’s recorded no less than 5 offensive boards in seven of his 17 appearances this season.
But the 2 sides failed to succeed in an settlement on a contract extension through the offseason and tabled negotiations coming into the common season. With out an extension in place, Robinson — the defensive anchor and longest-tenured Knick on a roster with championship aspirations — shall be free to check the open market subsequent summer time.
Buying and selling a participant forward of an unsure free company is usually prudent. However there isn’t one other participant on the roster — or many throughout the league — who combines Robinson’s dominance on the offensive glass together with his rim safety. And there actually isn’t one doing it on a $12.9 million wage. Robinson hauled in 10 offensive rebounds in simply 18 minutes through the Knicks’ NBA Cup Ultimate win over the Spurs.
His worth comes with caveats. Robinson’s damage historical past complicates long-term planning. His free-throw taking pictures makes him weak to intentional fouling in high-stakes moments. These are trade-offs the Knicks have been keen to reside with — till the fact of unrestricted free company forces the problem.
On paper, the Knicks have choices. Packaging Robinson with Guerschon Yabusele brings outgoing wage near $19 million. Add Tyler Kolek — whose worth far exceeds his $2.1 million cap hit — and New York may goal a $20 million influence participant. However consolidating three rotation gamers into one would strip the very depth that has powered the Knicks’ rise this season. And even at that value level, discovering an apples-to-apples alternative for Robinson’s rebounding and defensive influence is almost not possible.
That’s what makes the following seven weeks so delicate.
With out Yabusele — who holds a $5.8 million participant possibility for subsequent 12 months — the Knicks have already got $200.9 million in assured wage dedicated to eight gamers for the 2026-27 season: Karl-Anthony Cities, Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Miles McBride, Pacome Dadiet and Kolek. That leaves simply $16.3 million beneath the projected $223 million second apron, with practically half a roster nonetheless to fill.
And Robinson is due a increase. If availability weren’t a priority — if not for a twice surgically repaired left ankle and a strict load-management plan — Robinson’s manufacturing would put him squarely available in the market that paid Hartenstein three years and $89 million to go away New York for Oklahoma Metropolis in 2024. The influence is plain. The chance is unavoidable.
The Knicks may select to maintain Robinson and push deeper into the second apron. However doing so comes with penalties:
Lack of the taxpayer mid-level exception (used to signal Yabusele)
Restrictions on aggregating a number of outgoing salaries in trades
Incapability to commerce the 2033 first-round decide
Lack of entry to prior commerce exceptions
And if the Knicks spend three seasons within the second apron over a five-year window, that frozen 2033 decide mechanically converts to No. 30 total
Just one crew has already crossed into the second apron for the 2025–26 season: the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Knicks, simply $148,000 beneath Apron No. 2, sit on the razor’s edge, one among 4 groups inside $4 million of the road alongside Golden State, Dallas and Minnesota.
New York may very nicely be a part of that listing subsequent season. Holding this roster intact whereas giving its rim protector a deserved pay increase would go away the Knicks with no various however to wade into the league’s most punitive monetary waters.
Time, nonetheless, isn’t on their facet. The choice level is approaching quick, and deferring it carries its personal threat. Depart it to likelihood, and the Knicks could discover themselves on the unsuitable facet of one other acquainted final result. Historical past says lightning doesn’t strike the identical place twice — however the NBA’s new CBA could have been designed to ensure it does.
