BILLS at BRONCOS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Broncos by 1, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: Josh Allen is on a mission. He performed by way of accidents and put collectively a fourth quarter drive when he wanted it most in opposition to an excellent Jaguars protection, particularly up entrance. One would possibly say that the Broncos protection is even higher however we’re undecided. Despite its rating and it’s league-leading sack complete, that protection was riddled by Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love and even Jaxson Dart. Sure, the Buffalo WR corps is paper skinny proper now however outdoors of Patrick Surtain, there are holes for Allen to seek out (watch how they cowl Buffalo’s excellent group of tight ends). Bo Nix’s inconsistencies are a problem in opposition to an bettering Payments cross protection. Nix doesn’t do properly when confronted with a wide range of pre-snap seems — and that’s what Sean McDermott did in opposition to Lawrence. Denver additionally depends on yards after the catch and the Payments are close to the highest of the league in defending YAC. And, whereas Buffalo’s run protection is beneath mediocre, RJ Harvey might not be capable to reap the benefits of any potential mismatch. Playoff expertise is one-sided and the Broncos have but to actually show themselves in opposition to high caliber competitors this 12 months. Nearly all of their convincing wins got here in opposition to backside feeding groups. Provided that the Broncos should depend on time of possession to maintain Allen on the sidelines, we’ll go underneath the full as properly.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Payments and the underneath.
49ERS at SEAHAWKS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Seahawks by 7 ½, 46
HANK’S HONEYS: The underneath seems good right here. Seattle has the very best protection within the NFC. The Seahawks usually grind it out on offense and the Niners’ defensive philosophy is to maintain the whole lot in entrance of them. This might be a low-scoring one. We simply don’t see Seattle working away with this in opposition to a well-recognized divisional rival. The groups meet for the second time in three weeks after the Seahawks’ 13-3 win within the Week 18 showdown for the NFC West and the highest seed. That works within the favor of Kyle Shanahan, who will definitely make changes off that recreation tape. Shedding George Kittle hurts as a result of the Seahawks are one of many NFL’s worst groups defending tight ends and what he means as a run blocker. Nevertheless, Christian McCaffrey will find yourself taking part in an even bigger half within the passing recreation. Plus, OT Trent Williams’ absence was evident within the final recreation when the Niners managed solely a FG. His return adjustments the whole lot. There are factors to be made for the Seahawks. The 49ers don’t strain the quarterback and Sam Darnold is a very completely different QB when and when he doesn’t have time. There’s additionally the horrible schedule the NFL dealt the 49ers, having to return from Philadelphia to face the rested Seahawks on a brief week. Nonetheless, it looks like too many factors.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: 49ers and the underneath.
TEXANS at PATRIOTS
3 p.m., Pats by 2 ½, 41
HANK’S HONEYS: The Texans’ protection is elite. The Steelers didn’t stand an opportunity in opposition to them. However that was largely as a result of Aaron Rodgers can’t transfer. Houston’s edge rushers simply met on the goal. Drake Maye can transfer and he has an enormous edge on CJ Stroud. Granted, Stroud made some massive performs in Pittsburgh however he was a turnover machine earlier and regarded panicked underneath strain. The Pats’ entrance dominated within the pits final week. Granted, the Chargers’ O-line is porous however the Texans have had safety points as properly. It’s additionally trying as if Stroud’s most dependable receiver, Nico Collins, might be sidelined with a concussion. Woody Marks might have success working inside in opposition to a D-line that’s extra about penetration than being a wall. Maye should play higher than he did final week, particularly as a result of the Texans neutralize working assaults. However he ought to after getting by way of his first playoff begin. Perhaps, the Patriots gained’t must gentle up the scoreboard. It would take just some massive performs down the sphere and that’s the place Maye displayed his MVP credentials all season. It’s going to be a drag-out affair. We like that this line is underneath a discipline aim. If the hook was on the opposite aspect, we’d lean Texans.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the underneath.
RAMS at BEARS
6:30 p.m., Rams by 3 ½, 51
HANK’S HONEYS: Rather a lot depends upon Matthew Stafford’s finger. All Rams bets went down the tubes final week after he hit it on a teammate’s helmet. X-rays have been unfavourable and he says it’s nice however we will see. Then there’s the anticipated 10-degree temperatures. Stafford has performed his whole profession both indoors in Detroit or within the heat of LA. He has not been a superb dangerous climate QB. Nevertheless, Stafford has excelled when he has a clear pocket and the Bears would not have a cross rush. Usually, Chicago’s D has been all about creating turnovers. They aren’t nice at any degree. As for the Bears’ O, can their all-important run recreation prosper in opposition to this Rams’ entrance? The Rams are glorious at preserving runners from attending to the perimeters. They will additionally usher in a fifth D-lineman, one thing that has given the Bears points. The Rams’ entrance is disruptive so Caleb Williams goes to must make some off-schedule performs just like the game-saving fourth and 10 he transformed final week. The Rams’ secondary has been exploited during the last month or so. Quentin Lake had a tough time in his first recreation again from damage final week and he’ll in all probability be matched up in opposition to TE Colston Loveland, Williams’ largest third down menace. The Bears could possibly be having a kind of magical seasons . . . a workforce of future. Provided that each of their residence losses have been by three factors, we’ll take the hook.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the underneath.
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WEEK’S BEST BET: Payments. Josh beats Bo.
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PLAYOFF RECORD
LAST WEEK: 1-5, over/underneath 5-1
BEST BETS: 1-0
