TEXANS at CHIEFS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Chiefs by 8, 42
HANK’S HONEYS: Relaxation or rust? Let’s put it this fashion. This isn’t Andy Reid’s first rodeo. The man is aware of what he’s doing and methods to put together his group, to not point out having each Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones (who hasn’t performed since Week 15) again at full power. There’s a distinction between common season and postseason mode and we must always see that right here. That’s to not say that Reid should divert a lot from the Week 16 playbook that noticed the Chiefs management the ball for practically 34 minutes in an essential 27-19 win, utilizing a run-heavy assault. One of the best ways to decelerate the Texans’ go rush is to run at them.
C.J. Stroud is lucky the sport isn’t being performed Sunday, when the KC climate dips to 2 levels. Nonetheless, he’s going to need to show he can operate in 16-degree climate as a result of his outside numbers, even in good situations, are far worse than his dome stats. Kansas Metropolis, with Jones hunkering down in the midst of the defensive entrance, has an opportunity to personal this sport within the pits towards a mistake-prone Houston O-line. When Tank Dell was damage within the common season assembly, it modified the dynamic of the sport. The Texans nonetheless haven’t crammed that void.
Some insist the Chiefs are the worst No. 1 seed shortly. They are saying that at their very own peril. The Chiefs traditionally know methods to flip it on on the proper instances, and so they confirmed a few of that down the stretch of the common season. They often don’t cowl large spreads however this one may have been larger. The Texans had a walkover win over a flawed Chargers group that wasn’t able to play playoff soccer. No free presents this week. The Chiefs exploit each Houston weak spot and coast at house. We’ve seen this act earlier than.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chiefs and the beneath.
COMMANDERS at LIONS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Lions by 8 ½, 56
HANK’S HONEYS: Jayden Daniels enters the Lions’ den towards a Detroit protection that performed above its heads towards the Vikings. The rookie QB, who performs with the poise of a five-year veteran, may be dynamic on the quick monitor of Ford Area. However can he preserve tempo with the Lions, an assault as explosive as any because the days of the Rams’ Best Present on Turf?
Jared Goff and the Lions are going to attain their factors. The Commanders couldn’t cope with Mike Evans. They’re not going to comprise Amon-Ra St. Brown with Marshon Lattimore. David Montgomery is again and that O-line goes to put on down a Washington entrance that may’t cease the run (4.8 ypc) to start with. What’s extra, the uber-talented, uber-motivated Lions have been pointing all 12 months to this sport. Are they going to let a rookie QB are available in and nonetheless their dream?
It could be a loopy complete however each groups will probably be going up and down the sector. The Lions have scored a minimum of 31 factors of their final 5 video games and that might require simply 25 factors from the Commanders towards the Lions’ wobbly D, which benefitted vastly from Sam Darnold’s poor efficiency. They’ve been blitzing at a excessive fee to compensate for his or her deficiencies and Daniels has good numbers towards the blitz. However the Lions don’t thoughts enjoying video games like this. Dan Campbell is assured his group can outscore anyone’s. And with each coaches unafraid to gamble on fourth down, that results in good area place irrespective of the end result of the play.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over.
RAVENS at BILLS
6:30 p.m., Ravens by 1 ½, 52
HANK’S HONEYS: This falls into our common season look however don’t contact class. There isn’t a clear ATS winner, given the MVP credentials of each QBs. Both Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson could make the game-winning play, though that is the spherical the place Jackson often stubs his toe. Will he right here?
The distinction this time is Derrick Henry, the one kind of again constructed for the playoffs in addition to this anticipated climate. Though getting LB Matt Milano again will definitely assist, run protection is Buffalo’s weakest hyperlink. The Ravens will definitely study from the pass-happy sport plan they took into final 12 months’s playoff loss to the Chiefs. And when Henry isn’t plowing up the center, Jackson can get across the edge with RPOs, with Milano seemingly shadowing him as a spy. Allen can nearly match Jackson’s prowess as a runner however he doesn’t have Jackson’s weapons. The sport is extra on his shoulders than Jackson’s. The Ravens even have the higher protection. The Payments couldn’t transfer the ball towards them within the common season assembly and whereas each groups have adjustments significantly since then, it’s value noting that Baltimore’s protection has been arguably the AFC’s greatest since Week 11.
The sharp cash got here in on the Ravens early as quickly because the Payments opened as favorites. With acquainted situations of 18 levels, snow and 20 MPH wind gusts, the Payments determine to have a house area benefit however the Ravens are 9-3 ATS of their final 12 highway video games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the beneath.
RAMS at EAGLES
3 p.m., Eagles by 6, 43 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Their win towards the Vikings was emotion-fueled given the LA wildfires however it’s an excessive amount of to ask of the Rams to fly to Philly and retain the sting after one other chaotic week. Sure, this Rams’ protection has grown up over the course of the season and is enjoying nearly as good as any. However they’re not going to see a Sam the Sham-like efficiency out of Jalen Hurts nor will they dominate up entrance towards the Eagles’ O-line as they attempt to plug holes towards Saquon Barkley, who ran wild for 255 yards within the first assembly. That type of pounding often pays dividends within the second half, the place Philly has dominated all season. The Rams could need to promote out towards the run, leaving A.J. Brown and DaVonte Smith singled up towards a Rams secondary that may very well be lacking CB Ahkello Witherspoon. Hurts has had one other week to shake off the rust and it’s time for that passing sport to step up. Hurts additionally has the wheels to keep away from the push.
As he proved towards the Vikings, Matthew Stafford is a blitz beater however the Eagles don’t blitz. Vic Fangio brings stress along with his fearsome entrance and in Week 12, that led to 5 sacks and simply 4.8 yards per go try.
There’s a chance of snow within the forecast, relying on the temperature, however they need to see rain, a minimum of. That, and, on condition that each groups like to run the ball, has us on the beneath.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the beneath.
BEST BET: Chiefs. Wholesome and blissful.
LAST WEEK: 3-3, 4-2 over/beneath
BEST BETS (POST-SEASON): 1-0
