CHARGERS at TEXANS
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Chargers by 2 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The underneath stands out right here contemplating Jim Harbaugh’s typical grind it out mentality and Houston’s stumbling offense. The Texans come into the postseason with the lowest-ranked offense amongst playoff groups, and that actually reveals up within the crimson zone, the place the Chargers protection occurred to personal the NFL’s lowest TD price (45%) through the common season. Area objectives don’t result in overs cashing in.
For that cause, so long as the road is underneath a FG, it’s a lean towards the Bolts. They’ve picked it up with a profitable tradition instilled by Harbaugh that ought to carry into the playoffs. General, they’ve the higher coach and the higher QB in Justin Herbert, with C.J. Stroud not fairly following up on his nice rookie season. The Texans rely on their nice cross rush however the Chargers have two high tier tackles that can provide Herbert time to work with Ladd McConkey in opposition to a weak Houston secondary. The Chargers, as nicely, are the way more disciplined staff relating to penalties, a mirrored image of their coach.
There may be one hesitancy. The Texans are the staff everybody seemingly needed to attract within the playoffs and the no-respect angle could be a highly effective factor within the arms of a motivator like DeMeco Ryans. Possibly that’s not as vital an element with a staff just like the Chargers, who needed to battle to get into the playoffs, not like the Texans, who received the AFC South virtually by default. However it’s a consideration.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the underneath.
STEELERS at RAVENS
Saturday, 8 p.m., Ravens by 9 ½, 44
HANK’S HONEYS: With the Ravens having received their final 4 and the Steelers having misplaced their final 4 (together with a 31-17 pasting from the Ravens on Dec. 21), this line has gotten just a little out of hand. One would suppose that Mike Tomlin, whose groups have all the time been dwell canines, would have the Steelers much more able to play right here. He’s usually had John Harbaugh’s quantity. However a better look reveals that Pittsburgh has flopped in its final three playoff appearances, shedding by 11, 21 and 14 factors. If the Ravens get forward early — and they’re one of many highest-scoring first-half groups within the league — the Steelers might simply fall into the mindset with which they completed the common season.
The Steelers’ probabilities of masking rely on their protection enjoying lights out as a result of the mistake-prone offense isn’t placing up any factors. That protection confirmed up in Week 18, holding the explosive Bengals to 19 factors in one other loss, however the Ravens are much-more balanced and have an even bigger array of weapons, Derrick Henry chief amongst them. He’s been a playoff monster over the course of his profession and comes off a 166-yard evening in opposition to the Steelers within the that December assembly. Baltimore’s D, in the meantime, allowed the NFL’s fewest factors per recreation over the past eight weeks of the season. They’re peaking. Tomlin’s most suitable choice is to maintain this a low-scoring recreation and he’ll arrange his recreation plan that approach. The underneath seems to be like the decision.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Ravens and the underneath.
BRONCOS at BILLS
1 p.m., Payments by 8 ½, 47
HANK’S HONEYS: There is no such thing as a doubt that the Payments are the higher staff however this significantly better? There are a number of explanation why the Broncos can keep on this recreation and provides the Payments a scare. First, they’ve the higher protection and that all the time counts within the playoffs, significantly when it’s the street staff. Second, Sean Payton. He’s going to be increasing the playbook for the playoffs and focusing in on a Buffalo protection that’s been center of the pack through the common season. That additionally negates the rookie QB issue for the reason that Payments don’t essentially have a protection to rattle Bo Nix in his first playoff begin. Apart from, Nix isn’t any extraordinary rookie QB with 78 begins between school and the NFL. His offensive line allowed the bottom strain price within the NFL whereas the Payments ranked thirtieth in protection once they don’t get strain.
Whereas we don’t see it occurring, Josh Allen is the one cause to wager on a Payments blowout. He has the legs to increase performs in opposition to the Broncos’ formidable cross rush and that’s much more vital in opposition to a staff that performs loads of man protection, because the Broncos do. The showdown within the crimson zone can be key. The Payments are virtually automated within the crimson zone. The Broncos rankled third in crimson zone protection.
Buffalo was 8-0 enjoying in entrance of the Payments Mafia through the common season however the Broncos had been 6-3 ATS on the street they usually’re one staff that isn’t going to shrivel up due to just a little Western New York chill.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Broncos and the underneath.
PACKERS at EAGLES
4:30 p.m., Eagles by 4 ½, 45 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Jordan Love’s elbow is an element. He’s been saying it’s sore and that may’t be good. Though he’s been the NFL’s highest-rated passer since Week 12, he’s misplaced WR Christian Watson and should rely closely on Josh Jacobs having the ability to pound the ball in opposition to a stout Phill entrance. True, the Packers lit up the Eagles protection within the season opener in Brazil however that was earlier than Vic Fangio’s scheme took maintain. Love can get a bit unfastened in opposition to high tier defenses and he hasn’t seen many schemes like this one.
The Philly facet isn’t with out query marks, starting with Jalen Hurts. It seems to be as if he’ll begin however QBs popping out of concussion protocol don’t all the time bounce again shortly. And the way prepared will Hurts be to scramble? A lot of the Eagles’ offense is dependent upon Hurts’ dashing yards. We do suppose, nonetheless, that it’s nonetheless benefit Eagles. Though he scored twice, Philly didn’t take as a lot benefit of Saquon Barkley within the first assembly as a result of the Eagles had been nonetheless figuring issues out. They actually turned issues on once they began to function the ex-Large and he hasn’t stopped since. The Packers can attempt to stack issues up in opposition to him however that opens up the sector for WRs A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith with Inexperienced Bay CB Jaire Alexander on the shelf.
Lastly, it’s important to be just a little dissatisfied in the best way the Packers completed the season in opposition to the Vikings and Bears the final two weeks. In the meantime, the Eagles had been in a position to relaxation their starters and nonetheless coast in opposition to the dilapidated Giants.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the underneath.
COMMANDERS at BUCS
8 p.m., Bucs by 3, 50 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Watch out with this one. There is no such thing as a clear lower selection as a result of each groups have defensive deficiencies that the opposite can exploit. The Bucs can’t defend the cross. The Commanders can’t cease the run. The sport can be determined by which staff can management the tempo of the sport.
The Bucs’ deficiencies in cross protection have been considerably coated up lately as a result of they haven’t confronted a high tier QBs since Brock Purdy in Week 10. Jayden Daniels is step up over Spencer Rattler, Bryce Younger, Tommy DeVito, and many others. Todd Bowles blitzed Daniels unmercifully through the Bucs’ 37-20 rout in Week 1 however that was Daniels’ NFL debut. Since then, he has been excellent each avoiding and changing in opposition to each the blitz and zone protection, that are Bowles’ finest strategic weapons. Tampa Bay might be burned deep and may have a tough matchup in Terry McLaurin, beat up within the secondary as they’re.
The Bucs ought to be capable to run the ball. Bucky Irving has had a breakout rookie season and he’ll be up in opposition to a Commanders rush protection that has allowed 487 yards the final three video games. That every one modifications if the Commanders can bounce out to a lead with their passing assault. The Bucs are 1-6 SU when not scoring first. Baker Mayfield’s penchant for taking possibilities might begin to hang-out him in catchup mode. The Bucs do have a bonus because the extra hardened staff. They navigated via a brutal schedule and to win six of their final seven video games to get into the playoffs for the third straight 12 months. The Commanders have been considerably of a Cinderella staff and are enjoying with home cash. With the soccer flying in all places, we must always see loads of factors. The over is the decide, even with this excessive a complete.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the over.
VIKINGS at RAMS
Monday, 8 p.m., Vikings by 1 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: There’s an opportunity this recreation might be moved to Arizona due to the wild fires, however that’s not an amazing issue contemplating the Rams don’t usually have a giant residence subject benefit. The place they do have a bonus is within the matchups. The Vikings protection wins with the blitz and Brian Flores by no means veers from his philosophy. However Matthew Stafford is a blitz beater. He did it when the Rams beat the Vikings by 10 through the common season, with Stafford burning it for 279 yards and three TDs in that Week 8 contest. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp had been of their first video games again from harm that week however they’re absolutely wholesome and nicely rested, as is RB Kyren Williams.
There’s a caveat to that L.A. win. The Vikings had been on a brief week and weren’t anticipating to see Nacua. They’ll be absolutely ready this time. Nonetheless, equally regarding for the Vikings is final week’s meltdown in that winner-take-all recreation in Detroit and groups have had issues this 12 months the week after enjoying the Lions. The Lions beforehand compromised protection merely got here after Sam Darnold and uncovered him behind a battered offensive line. Minnesota did nothing within the crimson zone, and it wasn’t a one-game exception. The Vikings transformed at only a 40% price over the past two video games of the 12 months. The Rams have been glorious defending the crimson zone all 12 months.
The Rams made some nice defensive changes within the first recreation and held Aaron Jones to 58 yards dashing
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Rams and the underneath.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Ravens. Making up for final 12 months.
LAST WEEK: 7-9, 8-8 over/underneath
OVERALL: 129-139-4, 133-136-3 over/underneath
BEST BETS: 9-9
