By Tim Henderson, Stateline.org
Virginia and New Jersey could also be among the many states most affected by the hiring slowdown that enraged President Donald Trump when it appeared in an Aug. 1 jobs report displaying the US had 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in Could and June.
Such revisions to earlier experiences are based mostly on extra up-to-date payroll knowledge and are routine. However the scale on this case was surprising — displaying the smallest month-to-month job positive aspects since pandemic-era December 2020 and the biggest jobs revision, exterior recessions, since 1968.
In response, Trump declared the numbers had been flawed, fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, and provided as a substitute E.J. Antoni, a loyalist who has proposed suspending the roles report. Trump falsely stated in a Fact Social publish that the revised jobs numbers had been “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”
Past these attention-grabbing actions, although, the numbers reveal the true results of Trump’s work slashing the federal authorities.
A Stateline evaluation of the info exhibits how a number of states, particularly Virginia and New Jersey, shed jobs within the second quarter of this yr, which incorporates Could and June.
In Virginia, there have been job losses blamed on canceled federal contracts in Northern Virginia as a part of cuts made by Elon Musk’s Division of Authorities Effectivity, generally known as DOGE. In the meantime, a gradual housing market shuttered a plywood manufacturing facility within the southern a part of the state, and DOGE efforts canceled flooding management contracts on the coast.
Jay Ford, Virginia coverage supervisor on the Chesapeake Bay Basis, informed a state legislative committee in June that $50 million in contracts had been slashed within the Hampton Roads space close to the coast, inflicting a spike in unemployment claims.
That included $20 million to deal with flooding in Hampton, the place nearly 1 / 4 of houses are in flood zones, and $24 million to restore a Portsmouth dam that might fail in a serious storm, he stated.
“This is work that you desperately needed,” Ford stated on the committee listening to. “There was a real focus on certain buzzwords like ‘climate’ or ‘resilience,’ and I think people conflated some of these projects as somehow unnecessary.”
As an illustration, the American Institutes for Analysis introduced 233 layoffs in Virginia in Could and 50 in Maryland for the reason that starting of the yr. The not-for-profit group’s initiatives embody working with college districts to resolve achievement gaps and absenteeism, creating AI-driven workforce coaching, and addressing well being care points equivalent to enhancing kidney illness care whereas lowering Medicare prices and strengthening entry to well being care by protecting rural hospitals open.
“The changes occurring in the federal government have brought significant challenges for many federal contractors, including AIR,” stated Dana Tofig, the corporate’s spokesperson.
Different latest layoffs in Virginia: 442 employees at Northern Virginia’s Mitre, which manages federally funded protection analysis facilities and confronted $28 million in canceled federal contracts; and 554 employees at a shuttered plywood manufacturing facility in Southern Virginia.
Stateline checked out two state jobs surveys for the second quarter that typically have fairly totally different outcomes: the so-called payroll survey of companies that the Bureau of Labor Statistics makes use of for its month-to-month report, which has but to be revised on the state degree, and the BLS Native Space Unemployment Statistics program, which estimates job modifications based mostly on month-to-month family surveys.
The LAUS estimates are sometimes referred to as the “household” survey as a result of they rely totally on surveys of households, asking how many individuals are employed. They embody jobs the payroll survey can’t get, equivalent to contract and agricultural jobs, and seize jobs the place folks reside moderately than states the place employers are situated.
In a state like Virginia with a excessive variety of federal staff and contract employees, misplaced jobs could present up sooner within the family survey since many federal jobs aren’t mirrored on state-level payrolls if they’re accomplished by subcontractors, if the company or contractor relies in one other state, or if DOGE cuts allowed folks to cease work however keep on the payroll till September. These folks would possibly report being unemployed within the family survey however wouldn’t present up in different surveys till October.
The family survey exhibits about the identical variety of slowing job positive aspects because the revised nationwide payroll report, so it might be a window into the traits, many brought on by Trump administration cuts in authorities, well being care and overseas support, and in addition by slowing gross sales in shops and housing markets.
Each surveys depend on small samples and are sometimes revised later, stated Charles Gascon, an economist and analysis officer on the Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis. The extra definitive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, set for launch Dec. 3 for the second quarter, will present state patterns extra conclusively, he stated.
The family surveys present Virginia with the biggest job losses within the nation for the second quarter, down about 43,000, and job losses each month since February. Earlier than that, the state gained jobs each month for the reason that top of pandemic job losses in April 2020.
New Jersey, which had probably the most job losses — 15,400 — within the separate second-quarter payroll survey, has suffered layoffs in retail shops hit by a slowdown in shopper spending, elevated shoplifting and, amongst drugstores, lawsuits for his or her function within the opioid epidemic.
Walmart introduced 481 layoffs at its Hoboken, New Jersey, company workplace, and Ceremony Support drugstores laid off 1,122 amid Chapter 11 chapter affected by opioid disaster lawsuits that additionally hit Walmart and different pharmacy chains. Pharma corporations Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis even have introduced a whole bunch of layoffs in New Jersey, citing patent expirations on fashionable medicine.
Wobbly state funds
Rising unemployment mixed with weak income progress suggests “economic fragility” for state funds, stated Lucy Dadayan, a principal analysis affiliate for the City-Brookings Tax Coverage Heart who tracks state tax income.
Nationally, unemployment was at 4.2% in July, the identical as July 2024 however up from latest lows of three.4% in April 2023, with the biggest will increase in Mississippi, Virginia and Oregon.
Unemployment has dropped probably the most in contrast with July 2024 in Indiana, Illinois, New York and West Virginia.
The states with the best unemployment charges in July had been California (5.5%), Nevada (5.4%) and Michigan (5.3%), whereas the bottom had been in South Dakota (1.9%), North Dakota (2.5%) and Vermont (2.6%).
“I think the dramatic May and June jobs revision signals economic fragility. State-level warning signs suggest the impacts will show gradually,” Dadayan stated. “And of course states are facing fiscal challenges caused by One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending decisions.”
State funds are a combined image, with earnings tax collections rising due to a robust inventory market and gross sales tax progress weak as customers retreat on spending, Dadayan stated.
In Virginia, the economically distressed space round Emporia will endure aftershocks from the plywood plant closing, stated Del. Otto Wachsmann, a Republican who represents the world within the state Home of Delegates. The world is already reeling from the indefinite closure of a close-by Boar’s Head lunch meat plant that employed 600 folks after a listeria outbreak there final yr.
The group, a part of the southern “Wood Basket” area, has a big logging trade that can now wrestle to seek out new markets farther away with increased prices for trucking, Wachsmann stated. “We’re working hard to find new industries to come here.”
Layoff charges in April, as calculated by the net human assets platform Techr, confirmed New Jersey, Vermont and Virginia with the best charges.
Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst who calls herself “The Job Chick” on social media, stated the layoffs replicate restructuring in main firms in addition to federal cutbacks. She wrote in regards to the layoff charges in a latest publish.
California and Texas
California and Texas noticed the most important jobs positive aspects in each surveys within the second quarter.
Texas added 42,700 jobs within the payroll survey, with the biggest enhance coming within the class of personal instructional companies, 14,400 jobs, because the state authorised a plan for varsity vouchers to start out subsequent yr, in line with an announcement to Stateline from the Texas Workforce Fee.
California added 25,300 jobs. However the family survey confirmed a rise of virtually 111,000 jobs, the best within the nation.
A Public Coverage Institute of California weblog publish in July referred to as the state’s labor market “at best, in a hold-steady pattern this year,” citing the state’s stubbornly elevated unemployment charge of 5.4% but additionally its jobs enchancment over final yr.
“A hold-steady pattern is a welcome change from a year ago,” stated the publish, written by Sarah Bohn, a senior fellow on the institute.
