By ROBERT YOON
WASHINGTON (AP) — Elections in Florida and Wisconsin have turn out to be key exams of President Donald Trump’s political standing two months into his second White Home time period.
The marquee race Tuesday is for a swing seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom, a technically nonpartisan election that has drawn a minimum of $90 million in spending. Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk are backing conservative decide Brad Schimel whereas progressive billionaires and Democrats assist liberal Susan Crawford.
Two Republican-friendly Florida congressional seats may give the GOP some respiratory room within the narrowly divided chamber. However Democrats in each districts have far outraised their GOP counterparts, and nationwide Republicans have been publicly involved specifically concerning the race to interchange Mike Waltz, now Trump’s nationwide safety adviser.
Listed here are the locations to look at because the vote outcomes are reported on election evening:
Wisconsin: How massive will Democrats win in Milwaukee and Madison?
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats are likely to win by giant margins within the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (residence of Madison). However the measurement of that win is normally a giant consider who wins statewide, particularly in an in depth contest.
In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried Milwaukee with 68% of the vote and Dane with 75% whereas narrowly dropping statewide. That very same evening, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin ran about 2 share factors forward of Harris in each counties and narrowly gained reelection.
In 2023, the Democratic Social gathering-backed Supreme Courtroom candidate Janet Protasiewicz acquired 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% of the vote in Dane and went on to win statewide by an 11-percentage-point margin.
Wisconsin: How massive will Republicans win within the ‘WOW’ counties?
Republicans are likely to do nicely within the suburban Milwaukee counties of Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha — the so-called “WOW” counties. A powerful Republican exhibiting in these counties might help counter the Democratic benefit in city areas. Republican candidates have carried all three counties in each main statewide election going again to a minimum of 2016.
Wisconsin: Who’s forward in Inexperienced Bay?
Republican candidates are likely to win Brown County, which is residence to Inexperienced Bay, however not by large blowouts. Trump carried the county in all three of his presidential campaigns with between 52% and 53% of the vote.
However because the 2016 election, there have been two Democrats who carried Brown County and went on to win statewide: Tony Evers in his bid for governor in 2018 and extra lately Protasiewicz in her 2023 state Supreme Courtroom race.
A Democrat can nonetheless win statewide with out successful Brown (similar to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, Evers’ reelection in 2022 and all three of Baldwin’s U.S. Senate runs). But when they do carry Brown, it’s most likely going to be a tough evening for Republicans.
Wisconsin: What’s the scenario in Sauk?
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a aggressive space in statewide elections that normally finally ends up supporting the Democratic candidate, albeit by slim margins. It falls someplace in the course of Wisconsin’s 72 counties by way of inhabitants, and the margins are normally so small that statewide elections aren’t sometimes gained or misplaced in Sauk.
Democrats or Democratic-backed candidates had an extended successful streak in Sauk, having carried the county in eight of the final 10 main statewide elections. However the two exceptions are notable: Trump carried Sauk in 2016 and 2024, when he gained Wisconsin and the White Home.
Whereas Sauk gained’t seemingly place a decisive function in Tuesday’s elections, a victory there by a Republican-backed candidate could also be a superb signal for the social gathering statewide.
Florida: Voting historical past favors Republicans
Democrats are inspired by the sturdy fundraising performances of their nominees to interchange Waltz and former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, however the particular elections happen in two congressional districts which have lengthy been secure Republican territory.
Trump acquired about 68% of the vote in 2024 within the Florida Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, barely outperforming the 66% Gaetz acquired in his reelection bid. Within the sixth Congressional District on the Atlantic coast, Trump acquired roughly 65% of the vote, simply behind the 67% Waltz acquired in his remaining Home reelection bid.
The 4 counties that make up the first District have voted for Republican presidential candidates nearly frequently for the previous 60 years. Solely Walton County went for a Democrat on one event since 1960, though all 4 voted for Democrat-turned-independent candidate George Wallace in 1968. Immediately, the a part of Walton County that falls inside the 1st District is probably the most reliably Republican of the 4 counties.
Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties within the sixth District for the final 4 presidential elections. The Republican successful streak in a number of the counties stretches again for many years earlier than that. Lake County, for example, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz carried out finest in Putnam County, the place they each acquired about 74% of the vote.
Florida: The place to search for indicators of a potential Democratic upset
If Democrats handle to tug off upsets in both the first or sixth districts, the primary indications could also be of their finest performing counties.
Given the Republican benefit in each districts, the Democrats’ finest areas are nonetheless locations the place Republicans carried out nicely. Within the 1st District, Trump and Gaetz did comparatively the worst in Escambia County, though they nonetheless acquired 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
Within the sixth District, Democrats might do finest in Volusia County, the place Trump acquired 58% and Waltz acquired about 60%. Republican presidential candidates have carried Volusia within the final 4 elections, however the space was once extra pleasant territory for Democrats, who gained the county for six consecutive elections from 1992 by 2008.
Initially Printed: April 1, 2025 at 1:00 PM EDT
