The charges of decline in ever smoking and smoking commonly slowed considerably from 2010 onwards, coinciding with the emergence of vaping in New Zealand. Credit score: Sam Egger, Becky Freeman, Judith McCool and Lucy Hardie, CC BY-SA.
E-cigarette corporations, together with giants akin to British American Tobacco, have actively lobbied governments in New Zealand and Australia to weaken current vape rules whereas stopping the introduction of stricter ones.
As a part of their argument, they declare that for adolescents in New Zealand, the usage of e-cigarettes (vaping) could be “displacing” cigarette smoking. They argue younger individuals are choosing vapes over conventional cigarettes.
Their key piece of proof for this declare is an influential research printed in Lancet Public Well being in 2020. It concluded:
“The overall decline in smoking over the past 6 years in New Zealand youth suggests that e-cigarettes might be displacing smoking.”
Nonetheless, in our new research printed at the moment in Lancet Regional Well being-Western Pacific, we used the identical knowledge supply because the 2020 research and located it doesn’t assist that conclusion.
Inspecting the proof
We used a statistical method referred to as logistic regression to investigate knowledge spanning a 25-year interval from 1999 to 2023, together with almost 700,000 highschool college students aged 14 to fifteen.
Earlier than analyzing the information, we knew New Zealand had made outstanding progress in lowering adolescent smoking charges in latest many years. What we needed to know, nevertheless, is whether or not this progress had been affected by the emergence and speedy rise of vaping amongst New Zealand adolescents, starting in about 2010.
This might probably embrace vaping displacing smoking, as argued by e-cigarette corporations. If this have been the case, we would anticipate to see adolescent smoking charges decline at a fair sooner charge after the emergence and subsequent rise of vaping.
Alternatively, impacts would possibly occur by a “gateway effect” the place vaping would improve the dangers of adolescents beginning to smoke. This can be a concept persistently supported by findings from cohort research, which observe people over time to look at how sure components have an effect on their well being or behavioral outcomes.
Underneath this situation, we would nonetheless anticipate to see adolescent smoking charges persevering with to say no after the emergence and rise of vaping, however to say no at a slower tempo than earlier than the introduction of vapes.
From 1999 to 2023, we noticed a big decline within the charges of scholars aged 14 or 15 “ever smoking,” “smoking regularly” (every day, weekly or month-to-month) or smoking every day.
Nonetheless, the charges of decline in “ever smoking” and “smoking regularly” slowed considerably from 2010 onwards, coinciding with the emergence of vaping in New Zealand (see figures beneath). The speed of decline in every day smoking didn’t change considerably from 2010 onwards.
In 2023, about 12.6% of 14- and 15-year-olds in New Zealand had “ever smoked” (starting from just some puffs to smoking every day). Nonetheless, if the “ever smoking” charge had continued alongside its pre-2010 trajectory (earlier than vaping emerged) this determine would have been 6.6%.
Equally, in 2023, round 3.0% of scholars have been “smoking regularly,” however this charge would have been simply 1.8% had it adopted its pre-vaping development.
Some would possibly argue that 2010 isn’t the optimum yr for observing adjustments in smoking charges associated to vaping as a result of vaping was at low ranges then. Nonetheless, we addressed these issues by testing different “change years” from 2008 to 2018. Our findings have been constant throughout all years.
Others would possibly counsel that adjustments in cigarette costs between 1999 and 2023 could be driving the noticed slowing within the decline of smoking developments. Nonetheless, even after statistically accounting for worth adjustments, our findings remained the identical.
The place the 2020 research falls brief
The conclusion of the 2020 research was based mostly solely on the remark of declining smoking charges from 2014 to 2019, a interval when vaping had already turn into notably current amongst New Zealand youth.
By not assessing whether or not smoking developments really modified, slightly than merely declined, the research incorrectly attributed the declines between 2014 and 2019 to vaping. It didn’t take into account whether or not the declines mirrored a continuation, a slowing or an acceleration of pre-existing developments.
In distinction, our evaluation over an prolonged timeframe (together with earlier than the introduction of vaping in New Zealand) exhibits the charges of decline for each “ever smoking” and “smoking regularly” slowed considerably from 2010 onwards.
Why does the 2020 research matter?
Correcting the document of the 2020 research is essential as a result of it has been used repeatedly to foyer authorities committees and affect coverage choices.
It was one of the regularly cited items of proof in submissions to the New Zealand parliament’s well being choose committee, together with by British American Tobacco, concerning a 2020 invoice which aimed to control the sale and advertising of e-cigarettes.
In its submission to the Australian Parliament’s choose committee on tobacco hurt discount, British American Tobacco once more referenced the 2020 research as essential proof to argue in opposition to the tightening of e-cigarette rules. In its submissions to each committees, British American Tobacco quoted verbatim the flawed conclusion from the 2020 research.
Our analysis challenges claims that vaping could be displacing smoking amongst New Zealand adolescents.
As a substitute, our findings counsel that vaping could also be contributing to adolescents taking over smoking. This underlines the necessity for efficient insurance policies that deal with each vaping and smoking in New Zealand.
Different jurisdictions considering legal guidelines that permit easy accessibility to vaping merchandise for adults ought to rigorously take into account the potential for unintended penalties on younger folks.
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The tobacco foyer claims vaping is displacing youth smoking; an in depth have a look at the proof tells one other story (2025, March 23)
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