SUPER BOWL LIX: EAGLES vs. CHIEFS in NEW ORLEANS
6:30 p.m., Chiefs by 1 ½, 49 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Let’s start with one simple set of information. Whereas luck and favorable calls have actually contributed to the Chiefs’ run of success, they nonetheless possess a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an NFL playoff record-holding receiver in Travis Kelce, a stud DT in Chris Jones, a shutdown cornerback in Trent McDuffie, the league’s finest play caller in Andy Reid and a defensive coordinator whose schemes have received three Tremendous Bowls in Steve Spagnuolo. That’s what the Eagles are up in opposition to.
On the identical time, the Eagles carry into the sport a dimension that hasn’t been seen in a Tremendous Bowl in a technology, a breakaway operating menace in Saquon Barkley. Practically each current Tremendous Bowl has been about shutting down the opponent’s passing sport. Right here, the important thing to the sport is how Kansas Metropolis limits Barkley’s effectiveness. Spags will definitely change his protection to concentrate on Barkley (as an alternative of spying on Josh Allen within the title sport) however whereas the Chiefs completed with a high 10 dashing protection, their finest success got here early within the season. Notably, they’ve allowed a mean of 148 yards of their two playoff video games and weren’t efficient in opposition to Buffalo’s James Cook dinner. Jones’ presence within the center is a big deterrent however the Eagles run it inside and outdoors the tackles at roughly the identical price and use their big, athletic O-line to assault the perimeter, springing Barkley. Spagnuolo assaults the run by sending his linebackers downhill. Barkley, after all, is skilled at making tacklers miss, particularly if they’re over-aggressive. O-line accidents are the X-factor with each C Cam Jurgens (again) and OG Landon Dickerson (knee) hurting. Each, nevertheless, practiced full with the 2 weeks’ time seemingly useful.
The identical query could be requested of QB Jalen Hurts, who, whereas transferring higher within the NFC championship sport, nonetheless regarded a bit not sure when making sharp cuts. Ought to Hurts be near regaining his regular mobility, the Chiefs is not going to in a position to make use of as many assets in opposition to Barkley. Hurts’ damage is not affecting his potential to throw and the Eagles will take photographs downfield. Nobody has dared problem McDuffie, who will line up reverse A.J. Brown, the man who bought the very best of him when McDuffie was a rookie in Tremendous Bowl LVII. Given how the bodily Brown excels in opposition to man protection, Hurts is not going to draw back. Additionally consider Dallas Goedert as a goal. The Chiefs gave up as many passing yards to tight ends as any workforce within the NFL. The Eagles don’t discover themselves in third-and-long conditions that always however once they do, Spagnuolo sends the home and Hurts has one of many worst passer rankings in opposition to the blitz. Outdoors of George Karlaftis when utilized as an edge rusher, Ok.C.’s go rush isn’t scary when taking part in it straight. Spags did a masterful job of scheming in opposition to Buffalo’s fourth-and-short performs it doesn’t matter what anybody thinks of that evaluate, however the Eagles’ tush-push is in a class by itself.
All that mentioned, the Eagles protection is extra able to stopping the Chiefs assault than vice versa. Mahomes may be very aware of Vic Fangio’s protection. He did nicely when he confronted it in opposition to the Broncos and final 12 months within the playoffs in opposition to the Dolphins. However these workforce didn’t have a dominant defensive entrance just like the one Fangio has this 12 months. It ought to maintain the Chiefs’ mundane operating sport in test and has an opportunity to get to Mahomes early. A lot of the Philly go stress comes from the within, the place Jalen Carter (combating an sickness) creates havoc. Quick stress right into a QB’s face has lengthy been a recipe for achievement in opposition to cell QBs like Mahomes. Each of Ok.C.’s OTs are suspect, so we should always see loads of stunts and video games to use that.
The fascinating factor to look at is whether or not Fangio varies from his umbrella scheme of protection, which forces an offense to accept beneath throws. That, after all, is precisely how the Chiefs transfer the soccer and in Kelce, they’ve a good finish who’s higher than anybody at discovering smooth spots in zones. In the meantime Playoff Pat is all the time able to taking up a sport, particularly at any time when the scenario requires it.
Should you’re a tendencies particular person, essentially the most fascinating considered one of all is that since 2003, groups with a first-round bye are 0-10 ATS in opposition to groups that performed the primary week. The ’09 Steelers are the one such workforce to have received SU. And, with a lot driving on turnovers, it must be famous that Philly has gone 5 straight video games with no turnover and has a turnover margin of 20-2 in its final six video games.
The underside line? It’s a coin toss. The Chiefs all the time work out methods to win. The Eagles have extra methods to win. The Chiefs have the intangibles. The Eagles have the deeper roster. Contemplating the whole lot, it’s a lean to the workforce down the turnpike, with a prop guess on Saquon as MVP.
Turning to the whole, we’re speaking about two excellent defenses, with the Eagles elite. They’ve held 15 of their final 16 opponents to 23 or fewer factors. Sure, each groups have been concerned in high-scoring video games final 12 months. However over the course of the season, the Chiefs have been a methodical workforce and the Eagles don’t thoughts taking part in that means. What’s extra, it is likely to be the one means the Chiefs win this. We’re seeing a primary half the place the groups play chess, feeling one another out, so a primary half underneath is unquestionably the best way to go, leaning towards the second half underneath. The complete sport whole appears to be a bit inflated and will go even larger, making it a lean to the underneath.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the underneath.
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LAST WEEK: 1-1, 0-2 over/underneath
POSTSEASON: 5-6-1, 6-6 over/underneath
BEST BETS: 3-0
