by Andrew Waa, Becky Freeman, Judith McCool, Lucy Hardie, Sam Egger, The Dialog
Credit score: Pixabay/CC0 Public Area
Smoking charges amongst adults have declined in Aotearoa New Zealand over current many years, from 18% smoking commonly in 2011/12 to eight% in 2023/24.
Nonetheless, marked inequities persist for Māori and Pacific peoples. Consequently, these populations expertise a lot increased charges of tobacco-related sicknesses and early dying in comparison with different ethnic teams.
As a result of tobacco dependancy usually begins in teenage years, an essential method to cut back well being inequities as a consequence of smoking is to decrease adolescent smoking charges.
A earlier examine had steered vaping may be displacing smoking amongst younger folks in Aotearoa—and in doing so, pace up the decline in youth smoking charges.
Nonetheless, our current analysis challenged this declare. Somewhat than rushing up the decline in smoking, our work confirmed that progress in decreasing adolescent smoking charges slowed after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa in 2010.
What our earlier analysis didn’t look at, nonetheless, was whether or not progress in decreasing adolescent smoking was the identical throughout ethnic teams (Māori, Pacific, European and Asian).
This issues as a result of simply as vaping and smoking charges differ throughout these teams, vaping may additionally affect smoking habits in a different way throughout communities.
For example, it may be that adolescent vaping is displacing smoking in some teams, thus accelerating declines in smoking charges. In different teams, it may be performing as a “gateway” to smoking, thereby slowing progress in decreasing smoking charges.
Our new examine revealed in Lancet Regional Well being-Western Pacific is the primary to look at this difficulty.
Is vaping linked with smoking amongst youth?
For every ethnic group—Māori, Pacific, European and Asian—we appeared for modifications within the charges of decline in smoking amongst faculty college students aged 14 to fifteen following the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa in 2010.
Particularly, we in contrast smoking tendencies from 2003 to 2009 (earlier than e-cigarettes have been extensively out there) with these from 2010 to 2024 (when vaping grew to become more and more frequent).
Earlier than e-cigarettes emerged in 2010, smoking charges on this age group have been quickly declining throughout all 4 ethnic teams.
If the appearance and rise of vaping led extra adolescents to begin smoking (the “gateway” impact), we would fairly anticipate the pre-2010 decline in smoking to gradual in that group from 2010 onwards. That’s, smoking charges may proceed to fall, however not as shortly as earlier than vaping grew to become out there.
Alternatively, if vaping was displacing smoking, we would fairly anticipate the pre-2010 smoking development to say no even quicker from 2010 onwards in that group.
We analyzed knowledge from almost 600,000 faculty college students aged 14 to fifteen, with 20% figuring out as Māori, 9% as Pacific, 58% as European and 13% as Asian.
By 2024, almost one in three Māori on this age group (29%) have been vaping commonly (month-to-month or extra usually), in contrast with 19% of Pacific, 11% of European and 4% of Asian college students.
From 2003 to 2024, the charges of 14-15-year-olds smoking commonly declined considerably in all 4 teams. Nonetheless, the decline in smoking commonly considerably slowed from 2010—the yr vaping emerged in Aotearoa—for Māori, Pacific and European adolescents. It didn’t gradual considerably for Asian adolescents.
In 2024, common smoking amongst 14-15-year-olds was roughly 6.2% for Māori, 3.3% for Pacific and a couple of% for European adolescents. Nonetheless, if every group’s pre-2010 development had continued, the estimated 2024 prevalences would have been 4.2% for Māori, 1.8% for Pacific, and 0.7% for European adolescents.
Because of this for each 1,000 college students in every group, there have been 20 extra Māori, 15 extra Pacific and 13 extra European college students smoking commonly in 2024 than there would have been if smoking tendencies had continued alongside their pre-vaping period trajectories.
We additionally checked different potential explanations for the slowing of progress in decreasing adolescent smoking.
First, we explored whether or not 2010 was the fitting “change year” to mark the emergence of vaping, given it was nonetheless unusual then. Second, we checked out whether or not modifications in cigarette affordability may clarify the slowing.
Nonetheless, testing different change years from 2008 to 2018 and controlling for affordability made little distinction to our findings.
What this implies for teenagers
We discovered no proof that vaping is displacing smoking amongst Māori, Pacific, European or Asian adolescents. Quite the opposite, we discovered progress in decreasing common smoking amongst Māori, Pacific and European adolescents slowed considerably after the emergence of vaping in Aotearoa (with no change for Asian college students).
The implications of our findings are extra severe for Māori and Pacific youth, who’ve increased charges of smoking and vaping than their friends. Somewhat than supporting claims that vaping reduces harms for these younger folks, it has considerably added to them.
It’s a main extra supply of nicotine dependence, carries its personal well being dangers and has coincided with extra adolescents smoking than if pre-vaping smoking tendencies had continued.
For Māori communities, nicotine dependence—whether or not from vapes or tobacco—undermines company at a person stage and self-determination (tino rangatiratanga) at a collective stage. It’s a persistent reminder of ongoing colonial impacts, from the introduction of nicotine dependancy to its continued entrenchment inside society.
Addressing these harms requires the federal government to uphold its constitutional and World Well being Group tobacco management obligations to interact with and prioritize Māori and Pacific views, and to assist approaches grounded in fairness, social justice and Indigenous rights.
Supplied by
The Dialog
This text is republished from The Dialog underneath a Inventive Commons license. Learn the unique article.
Quotation:
Vaping has slowed progress in reducing teen smoking in NZ—new examine (2025, November 6)
retrieved 6 November 2025
from https://medicalxpress.com/information/2025-11-vaping-teen-nz.html
This doc is topic to copyright. Aside from any honest dealing for the aim of personal examine or analysis, no
half could also be reproduced with out the written permission. The content material is offered for data functions solely.
