Credit score: European Fee, Joint Analysis Centre (JRC)
Because the EU’s inhabitants ages, well being care demand is ready to rise. New projections recommend that, if present illness prevalence stays fixed, physician and nurse numbers would want to extend by 30% and 33% respectively by 2071 to fulfill demand. Nonetheless, wholesome growing older may considerably cut back this want.
A JRC research applies an revolutionary mannequin to estimate the well being care workforce wanted within the EU till 2071, whereas making an allowance for present and future turnover of well being professionals, demographic change and wholesome growing older. Based mostly on information from 2021, the mannequin permits to make projections for a interval of fifty years at particular person nation and EU degree.
The research “Health care workforce demand and supply in the EU27” will help nationwide authorities throughout EU international locations to anticipate wants and plan staffing of well being care companies within the long-term to handle the demographic challenges of the growing older EU inhabitants and the well being care workforce.
The growing older inhabitants in Europe is driving an elevated demand for well being care companies, with the proportion of residents aged 65 and over anticipated to rise noticeably within the coming a long time. This demographic shift, coupled with the concurrent shrinking of the working-age inhabitants, is putting an unprecedented pressure on well being care techniques.
How will the demand for well being care professionals evolve?
The outcomes of the research reveal a posh panorama the place the demand for docs and nurses is anticipated to extend by 2071 as a result of growing older of the inhabitants, if the well being service utilization and illness prevalence burden stay the identical as in 2021.
The research signifies that if the variety of docs and nurses coming into and leaving the career stays much like 2021, the variety of docs within the EU would enhance by 16% and the variety of nurses would enhance by 8% by 2071. Nonetheless, this enhance would nonetheless fall wanting the demand if we contemplate the growing older of the inhabitants, along with developments in public well being and using public well being companies.
The projections point out that the variety of docs would want to extend by 30% and the variety of nurses by 33% to fulfill the demand, if illness burden stays fixed. This demand would lower significantly in wholesome growing older situations, the place individuals are in good well being in later levels of their lives.
The research exhibits that if the burden of sure ailments continues to lower as previously, it may greater than offset the results of an growing older inhabitants, resulting in a lowered want for docs and nurses sooner or later. On this regard, the research highlights the vital position of wholesome growing older in decreasing the burden on docs and nurses whereas enhancing the well-being of individuals generally.
To answer an growing demand, the variety of newly recruited professionals would want to extend, particularly within the quick run. Which means that within the coming years, the variety of docs/nurses leaving the labor pressure will should be compensated by a bigger variety of new docs/nurses coming into the career.
Credit score: European Fee, Joint Analysis Centre (JRC)
Examples from throughout the EU
For example, international locations reminiscent of Italy, Estonia and Luxemburg might want to double the recruitment of latest docs. In Italy, the biggest age group of docs in 2021 (about 19%) was aged 65–69 years outdated, near retirement. The scenario was related in Germany, though to a lesser extent, as the biggest age teams of docs had been 55–60 and 60–64 (21% and 16% respectively). In Sweden there was a extra uniform distribution throughout age teams.
This contrasts with international locations reminiscent of Eire, Cyprus and Finland, the place the variety of youthful docs was increased. In 2021, the biggest age group of docs in Eire was 35–39 years outdated. In Cyprus, it was the 40–44 age group, whereas in Finland it was the 30–39 age group.
In international locations like Sweden and Denmark, the present variety of new docs could be ample to compensate for retirements within the quick time period. Nonetheless, making an allowance for an growing demand for well being companies, the variety of new docs might want to enhance.
What may nationwide authorities do?
The research additionally serves as a name for EU Member States to undertake a forward-looking strategy to well being care workforce planning. The findings spotlight the necessity for EU Member States to align well being care insurance policies with demographic methods, tailoring them to nationwide circumstances, and interesting a various group of stakeholders within the course of.
The evaluation exhibits that the challenges of an growing older EU inhabitants could be addressed successfully, making certain that every one residents have entry to high quality well being care companies, one of many key goals of Sustainable Growth Aim 3 by 2030. The European Fee helps Member States by a spread of initiatives, together with the EU4Health program, the BeWell abilities improvement venture, digital competency packages, and initiatives geared toward enhancing the recruitment and retention of nurses.
The SANDEM mannequin
The research is predicated on a brand new mannequin, the Provide ANd DEMand mannequin for well being care workforce (SANDEM). It consists of the demographic traits of EU’s docs and nurses in addition to features which will affect the longer term demand for well being care, such because the burden of various ailments but in addition the wholesome growing older of the EU inhabitants.
The goal of the mannequin is to enrich nationwide well being care workforce planning with a long-term EU perspective beneath completely different situations. This work comes within the context of different research specializing in enhancing workforce planning, such because the Joint Motion HEalth woRkfOrce to fulfill well being challEngeS (HEROES) and the OECD 2024 Well being at a Look venture, which spotlight challenges on this sector associated to the retention, recruitment, reskilling and redistribution of docs and nurses. This collaborative effort helps to enhance the general workforce administration and useful resource allocation throughout the EU and the 27 MS.
Extra data:
Healthcare workforce demand and provide within the EU27: publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ … ory/deal with/JRC139503
Provide AND DEMand mannequin for the healthcare workforce within the EU27. Information sources and mannequin construction. publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ … ory/deal with/JRC137655
Enhancing EU healthcare workforce projections for sustainable well being techniques: knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/ … le-health-systems_en
The HEROES (HEalth woRkfOrcE to fulfill well being challengeS) Joint Motion: tutorial.oup.com/eurpub/articl … ckae144.2182/7842861
Well being at a Look: Europe 2024: www.oecd.org/en/publications/h … 024_b3704e14-en.html
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European Fee, Joint Analysis Centre (JRC)
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Well being care workforce: New mannequin tasks EU wants as much as 2071 (2024, December 6)
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