What’s at Stake

To understand the importance and consequences of Tuesday’s midterm elections, I spoke to Astead Herndon, a political reporter who has been covering this election cycle for the Times podcast “The Run-Up.”

Claire: Hi Astead. I live in Europe, where many people are only now starting to tune into the midterms. How would you explain to them, and others who need a refresher, why this election matters?

Astead: If the Republicans take back the House, it would change the scope of U.S. policy. We know they’d try to stop President Biden’s agenda. A Republican House would hurt Biden’s ability to respond to domestic challenges on his terms, like inflation, and to global crises — Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House leader, has signaled that Republicans might stop approving aid for Ukraine.

We’ve also seen a global rise in fears of democratic collapse. If the U.S. elects lawmakers who spread conspiracy theories about elections and who promise to tear down tenets of democracy, that will embolden autocratic leaders in other countries and weaken the United States’ standing in the world.

These midterms also matter because they could signal the start of an even more divisive era of politics. We should not assume we are at the floor of division — we’re going to get lower.

When you say Republicans would try to block Biden, what could that look like?

If Republicans take over Congress, some members will push their new House speaker to start impeachment proceedings of the president and members of his cabinet like Merrick Garland, the attorney general. Some Republicans have been ready to impeach Biden since he took office. Their complaints are about policy and politics, not accusations of the kinds of abuses of power that have historically been grounds for impeachment. McCarthy has tried to minimize talk of impeachment lately, seeing it as polarizing, but the hard right rank-and-file will almost certainly press for it.

You’ve been covering politics for years. What do you think we should be paying more attention to?

Democrats are asking their base to rally behind the idea of protecting democracy — that’s what Biden has said. But that base is mostly working-class Americans and people of color. And many of those people feel like the system has not provided tangible and meaningful change on issues that most affect their day-to-day life — like housing, wages or public safety.

A woman on last week’s episode of “The Run-Up” told us that democracy has never worked for her. She’s borne the brunt of poverty. Her top issue was housing. That’s not what the Democratic Party is talking about. While Biden and Democrats did pass funding related to housing, that money was drastically cut from the levels that most people who focus on the issue say was necessary to effect lasting change.

I also think that the media has done too little to explain Republicans’ built-in advantages. Their control of legislatures in some battleground states is backed by gerrymandering. We recently did an episode of the podcast about Wisconsin, and how Republicans have gerrymandered the state legislature in such a way that they have effectively shut Democrats out of power.

There are so many races that it can be hard to keep track. Which are worth following?

It depends on what matters to you. Let’s say it’s action from the White House on codifying abortion rights into federal law: Look at races where Democratic control of the House hangs in the balance, and Senate races in states like Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia. If Democrats don’t hold both chambers of Congress, that’s not going to happen.

If your concern is about the strength of democracy, look at state races, like for governor, secretary of state and statehouses — especially with the looming Supreme Court case that could give more power over elections to state legislatures. You can also look at Wisconsin and Arizona, where there are huge stakes, not just for this election but for the Democrats’ ability to win future races. The Republican candidates for governor in those states, Tim Michels in Wisconsin and Kari Lake in Arizona, have been openly hostile toward elements of our election system — including mail-in ballots and early voting — that many Democrats say are necessary for them to have a chance at success.

When might we know some results?

The initial numbers may give us hints of larger trends. In 2016 and 2020, results in Florida gave us good signs of the level of enthusiasm of particular voting blocs. If the Republicans win Florida by a lot, that’ll be a bad sign for Democrats. The margins of Virginia, for example, could tell us whether young, college-educated white voters are going back to Republicans, because they make up a sizable chunk of voters there. But for a lot of results, we will have to wait for the total count, which might take days.

Astead Herndon is a national political reporter who joined The Times in 2018. In high school, he wrote a column for his school newspaper named “Get into Astead’s Head.”

More on the midterms

NEWS

War in Ukraine

Sports

Other Big Stories

• Aaron Carter, who became a teenage sensation in the early 2000s with songs like “I Want Candy,” died at 34.

• A surge in antisemitic rhetoric has made this fall increasingly worrisome for American Jews.

FROM OPINION

The Sunday question: Did the Parkland school shooter deserve the death penalty?

Sentencing the guilty, largely remorseless Nikolas Cruz to life in prison showed him more compassion than he showed his victims, says The Miami Herald’s editorial board. But seeing a killer put to death doesn’t always bring solace to victims’ families, Emilia Benton writes for NBC News.

Times best sellers: “How Y’all Doing?,” a memoir by the actor Leslie Jordan, who died recently, debuted as a paperback nonfiction best seller. See all our lists.

THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINE

On the cover: The Democrats’ last stand in Wisconsin.

Recommendation: Make Greek chickpeas and spinach.

Ethicist: If you raised money after a fire, can you spend it on a vacation?

Eat: Pecan tart.

Read the full issue.

THE WEEK AHEAD

What to Watch For

• World leaders will gather in Egypt for international climate talks that open today.

• Bessie Hendricks of Iowa, believed to be the oldest person in the U.S., celebrates her 115th birthday tomorrow.

• Tuesday is Election Day in the U.S.

• Twitter shares are set to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday, as Musk takes the company private.

• Christie’s will auction the billion-dollar art collection of Paul Allen, the co-founder of Microsoft, on Wednesday and Thursday.

• The U.S. will release inflation data for October on Thursday morning.

• Veterans Day is on Friday.

What to Cook This Week

Looking for dishes kids will actually eat? Emily Weinstein asked her colleagues what they feed their own children on weeknights. Kenji López-Alt recommends niku udon, a fast, slurpable Japanese soup. Margaux Laskey suggests huli huli chicken, noting that her kids “love the salty-sweetness of it.” Genevieve Ko’s pick is pasta with pumpkin seed pesto, particularly because it’s designed to be made ahead and eaten chilled. Emily has more ideas for weekday meals.